The United States is approaching a so-called “enrollment cliff” or “demographic cliff,” a projection that is being closely monitored by those in higher education.
According to the Chronicle of Higher Education, the U.S. will reach a peak population of 3.5 million high school graduates around 2025. “After that, the college-age population is expected to shrink across the next five to 10 years by as much as 15 percent,” . In addition, the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that the number of 18-year-olds, which currently stands at around 4.2 billion, will not again exceed 4 million in this century.
In the “On Campus – with CITI Program” podcast, host Ed Butch talks with Aaron Berger, Ph.D., interim director of national recruitment at ֱ State University, about these declining numbers and other factors currently influencing college enrollment.
“There are several things that we’re thinking about that are top of mind for us. Firstly, I think ad nauseum, I wouldn’t be an admissions professional worth my weight in salt if I’m not mentioning the demographic cliff approaching, especially as it relates to the state of Ohio. The state of Ohio is going to be seeing a significant decline in college-age students here coming up in about a year or two and we’re sort of preparing for that and what it means,” Berger shared on the podcast.
On top of the decline in college-age students, universities like ֱ State also must work to combat current negative perceptions of a college education today and concerns about affordability, Berger said. On the upside, however, he noted that students are being more pragmatic today in both their college searches and in their choice of majors.
“Overall, we’re seeing trends with this generation of students being more pragmatic with their college search,” he said. “So, they’re applying to more places than they ever have before. I think the average is about eight to 10 institutions at this point and then in those choices they are choosing majors that are pretty deliberate.”
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